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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Corrections
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/USD Analysis: Technical Corrections". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Still bullish.
- Support Levels: 1.1790 – 1.1720 – 1.1650
- Resistance Levels: 1.1890 – 1.1970 – 1.2050
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1920 resistance level. Target: 1.1700. Stop-Loss: 1.2010.
- Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1690 support level. Target: 1.1880. Stop-Loss: 1.1600.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
After strong gains for the EUR/USD pair, which led it to reach the 1.1919 resistance level—its highest point in over four years—the currency pair's gains were primarily driven by pressure on the US dollar due to expectations of a US rate cut. However, the EUR/USD pair soon faced profit-taking. I had anticipated this and, before the US event, I issued a sell recommendation for EUR/USD with details on our free live trading recommendations page.
The US dollar has since recovered as traders absorbed the latest decision from the US Federal Reserve. The Fed cut the US interest rate by 25 basis points, as expected—the first cut this year—and signaled additional cuts of 50 basis points before the end of the year, a bit higher than what was anticipated in June. In the post-decision press conference, Fed Chairman Powell noted that the risks of persistent, rising inflation have decreased since April, describing the move as a “risk-management” cut rather than the start of a new easing cycle. Meanwhile, the newly appointed Governor, Steven Miran, voted for a larger 50-basis point cut, which led to fewer dissents than the market had expected.
Trading Signals: The EUR/USD Pair May Face Profit-Taking
According to forex trading experts at Unicredit Bank, there is a warning of profit-taking for the EUR/USD pair. As stated in their forecast, “the EUR/USD pair may show a ‘sell’ reaction to the results of the FOMC meeting.” This is exactly what happened.
According to performance across trusted trading platforms, the euro reached a four-year high against the US dollar as the expected rate cut approaches, but a near-term setback cannot be ruled out, according to analysts. According to the forecast, "After yesterday's sharp rise in the EUR/USD pair to its highest level since the beginning of the year at 1.1878, a 'sell' reaction to the Fed's announcement cannot be ruled out."
Overall, financial markets expect September to mark the beginning of a generous monetary easing cycle, as the Federal Reserve seeks to support a deteriorating labor market, even if inflation remains well above its mandated target. In anticipation of the monetary easing cycle, the EUR/USD exchange rate has continued to climb, registering a 0.87% increase for the week. It reached 1.1878 on Tuesday, its highest level since September 2025.
UniCredit explains that the impact of the Fed's decision on currency rates depends on any indications the Fed may provide regarding further monetary policy moves beyond the expected 25 basis point rate cut. With pricing in an additional 100 basis points beyond today's move, the market is fully prepared for further easing, opening the door to some disappointment if the Fed is unable to justify this aggressive pricing generously.
Obvioulsy, this reflects how markets often move in anticipation of news, rather than in response to it. Generally, by the time the Federal Reserve officially announces a rate cut, the negative outcomes for the US dollar will have been fully priced in, and there will be no new catalyst to push prices higher. This is why traders turn to profit-taking, which leads to intensive selling.
Trading Tips:
It is best to wait for further trading cycles to react to the Federal Reserve's announcement of a US interest rate cut to enter the most appropriate EUR/USD trades in the xmyoume.coming days.
EUR/USD Bullish Scenario in the xmyoume.coming Days
Based on the daily timeframe chart, the path for the EUR/USD pair remains bullish. Stability at and above the 1.1800 resistance will continue to be a catalyst for bulls preparing for stronger upward breakouts. This is because it increases the pace of upcoming gains if the US dollar's positive momentum slows down after the latest Federal Reserve announcement. The psychological resistance at 1.2000 will remain the most important level to push all technical indicators towards strong overbought levels. Currently, the 14-day RSI is around 60, which supports the bullish outlook, as does the MACD indicator's movement.
Today's EUR/USD trading, in addition to the reaction to the rate cut announcement, will await the reaction to the statements from European Central Bank Governor Lagarde at 10:00 AM Egypt time. Then, more importantly, the announcement of the weekly US jobless claims and the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading at 3:30 PM Egypt time.
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