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【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis and Signals: Selling Pressure May Remain Until Jackson Hole
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】--EUR/USD Analysis and Signals: Selling Pressure May Remain Until Jackson Hole". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Downward bias.
- Today's Support Levels: 1.1610 – 1.1540 – 1.1500.
- Today's Resistance Levels: 1.1680 – 1.1750 – 1.1820.
EUR/USD Trading Signals
- Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1570 support level, with a target of 1.1720 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
- Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1730 resistance level, with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today
Amid strong selling pressure, the EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen to its lowest levels, near the 1.1630 support. The pair's losses came as the market's focus shifted to geopolitical developments and US-led efforts to mediate a deal in Ukraine.
On Tuesday, stocks gained as overall risk conditions remained stable, while energy prices stayed under downward pressure. The decline in gas prices should generally support the euro.
From a technical perspective, according to currency trading experts, a dip is unlikely to threaten the key support at 1.1630 (with another support at 1.1650). On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1685 and 1.1700. European currencies with a higher beta, such as CEE FX and the Scandies, have been stable, suggesting that investors are largely pricing in a geopolitical de-escalation. This could indicate that the euro's correction may be exacerbated by a repositioning.
Based on the US dollar's performance, we see some upward risks for EUR/USD from here until the end of the week. A move above the 1.1700 resistance is still entirely possible before the week is out. Currently, technical indicators, led by the 14-day RSI and the MACD, are trending downward.
Russian-Ukrainian Peace Talks and Their Impact on the Euro's Price
US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky held talks in Washington on Monday, joined by European leaders. Trump suggested that a ceasefire would not be needed and that the conflict could move directly to a settlement, though the Europeans were less convinced. The US will continue to push for a deal in which Ukraine gives up territory in exchange for security guarantees.
At the same time, Washington has hinted that it would provide some guarantees, but there is still doubt about whether it is willing to offer tangible support. Rabobank expects the US to place the responsibility on Europe; the EU would presumably be marginalized in this trilateral meeting even though they are expected to write the checks and provide the boots on the ground to enforce any security guarantees.
Some investment experts believe that if the talks prove successful in ending the conflict in Ukraine, they could provide more support for European currencies that have already outperformed this year. Another influential factor on currencies is the price of natural gas in Europe, which has fallen to its lowest level in over a year, highlighting that the negative terms-of-trade shock continues to fade.
Trading Advice
Please note that the EUR/USD will likely remain under downward pressure until there is a reaction to the Jackson Hole Symposium and what central bank officials say about the future of monetary tightening. Accordingly, any gains in the euro could be prone to a quick collapse.
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